Aaron Ramsdale: the right ‘keeper for Arsenal?
Arsenal conceded 9 goals (and scored 0) in the first three Premier League games of the season. Questions were understandably asked of a defence which looked weak, disorganized, and out of confidence.
However, after a couple of clean sheets against Norwich and Burnley, and a fantastic derby-day victory against Spurs, Arsenal fans finally have something to get behind, and much of the credit must go down to the improvement in defence. The line-up for the Norwich game included some predictable changes in defence from the previous three defeats: Out went Mari, Chambers, Kolasinac, Bellerin and in came Gabriel, White, and Tomiyasu as we switched from a 3–4–3 to a 4–3–3. The one unexpected casualty from the first three games, though, was Bernd Leno, who was dropped for new signing Aaron Ramsdale.
Conceding 9 goals in three games is not a good look for any goalkeeper, but anyone who suffered through watching those games would say that Leno wasn’t the primary culprit. Yes, he could’ve probably done better to keep some of the goals out but it was clear that the fault was with the team as a whole, and not the ‘keeper. Also — it must be asked, what does dropping a ‘keeper three games into the new season do for his confidence and his willingness to earn his place back? This question becomes ever more pertinent when considering his contractual situation — Leno can leave on a free transfer next summer and he might feel that his race at Arsenal is run.
It must be said, however, that Arsenal have looked much more defensively assured after Ramsdale’s introduction (although this also has to do with the aforementioned changes to the defence). But, is Ramsdale really a better goalkeeper than Leno? Why did Arteta make the ruthless (somewhat refreshingly) decision to axe Leno from the lineup after just three games?
Shot stopping
There’s not much to separate the two in the shot-stopping department. Last season, Bernd Leno had a Post-shot Expected Goals — Goals Allowed (PSxG-GA) of +4.1 compared to +1.9 for Aaron Ramsdale. According to FBRef, positive numbers suggest better luck or an above average ability to stop shots for goalkeepers. Going by this statistic, Leno appears a better shot-stopper than Ramsdale. Admittedly, shot-stopping is one of Leno’s strengths, but it must also be noted that Ramsdale played for a terrible Sheffield United side last season and, according to some Sheffield United fans, had some problems with confidence after a big move from Bournemouth and a tough start to the season. The save percentage of the two ‘keepers last season were nearly identical at around 70%. Despite the disparity between the two ‘keepers’ PSxG-GA, it’s hard to make a definitive conclusion about their respective shot-stopping abilities. Leno is probably slightly better.
Distribution
With Pep Guardiola and Arsene Wenger as key managerial influences, it is no surprise that playing out from the back and good distribution are “non-negotiables” (to invoke an Arteta-ism) for the manager. Last season, 22% of Leno’s passes were greater than 40 yards, compared to 70% for Ramsdale. It is very likely that this statistic is heavily influenced by the team’s style of play. What is more telling is the perception of many Arsenal fans that Leno’s passing has become less assured over the course of his Arsenal career. Compared to Petr Cech, he was a step up. Now, he seems less confident. Again, this could well be down to the fact that the people had to pass to in front of him — the likes of Holding, Mari, and Xhaka — would even make Ederson likelier to kick it long. And, despite the stats not exactly favouring him again, Ramsdale looked much more confident playing the ball out to Ben White for the short pass, or further afield to Pepe or Saka (who appear to be our primary long-ball targets in a team short of tall, commanding players up front). It should also be noted that distribution is also about knowing when to play out from the back versus when to kick it long. Ramsdale’s decision-making in this department during the game against Spurs was excellent. In the first half, as we sought to exploit the gaps in Spurs’ midfield by breaking at pace, Ramsdale chose to play short passes to our midfield (notably, for the second goal, he made a pass to Xhaka which was nearly intercepted by Hojbjerg). In the second half, as we sought to manage the game better after securing a three-goal advantage, Ramsdale kicked it long mainly towards our forwards in an attempt to have us win second balls. Our conclusion in this goalkeeping department is similar to the above — not much to split the two, but perhaps slightly in favour of Ramsdale.
Commanding the area
Ah, the ever-so-elusive attribute of having ‘command over the penalty area’ for an Arsenal goalkeeper. Seriously, have we had a ‘keeper with this trait since Szczesny? Ramsdale looks a breath of fresh air with his willingness to come out and catch crosses and willingness to communicate with his defence. The stats, even from last season with a relegated Sheffield United team, back this up. Ramsdale stopped 9.5% of all opposition crosses into the box last season. For perspective, this is higher than Emi Martinez (8.4%), Leno (8.4%), Jordan Pickford (8.1%), Ederson (7.8%), and David de Gea (4.6%). Ramsdale is also confidently quick off his line, having completed 22 defensive actions outside his penalty area last year — something we saw him do a bit in his early career for Arsenal too. We believe that it is this area where Ramsdale most clearly (but not too significantly, it must be noted) outshines Leno.
Conclusion
Right now, the stats don’t tell a very conclusive story. It’s difficult to separate the two from just looking at the numbers, but Ramsdale’s early performances are a glimpse of what could potentially be a very good signing for Arsenal for the long-term. He’s a young, eager, and confident ‘keeper who tries to radiate that confidence to the rest of the defence — something Leno never quite achieved. He clearly wants to play for Arsenal — something that is difficult to say of Leno given the situation surrounding his contract. However, it’s not impossible to foresee a situation in which Leno is brought back to the fold in the Premier League. Last season, Manchester United played with two goalkeepers in the Premier League: David de Gea and Dean Henderson. And while the former was clearly the first-choice, Dean Henderson got his chances too. Similar competition for the goalkeeping position exists at Chelsea with Mendy and Kepa. At Arsenal, we now have two goalkeepers of the requisite quality to be our number 1, and we hope that this fosters healthy competition between the two. Time will tell how Leno responds…
